State of the Market Report
2nd Quarter, 2010
July 2010
Dear Friends,
Having just passed through the first two quarters of 2010, you may be curious about how Santa Fe’s real estate market has fared so far this year. With national news reports at times being positive and at other times being negative, it is challenging to sort through the noise and to gain an understanding of what is real. The task is quite humbling for those of us who work in Santa Fe’s real estate market each day although it is clear the Buyer’s Market is still intact and prices have continued to slip.
From January through April there was a definite trend of increasing showings, pending sales, and sales each month as compared with 2009. This activity led to the most closings in four years in May. The counter balance to this, however, has been that showing activity has slowed since May which may result in the previous trend line of sales flattening or dropping. This phenomenon mirrors the general national trend which some attribute to the expiration of tax credits. With summer and fall being traditionally the strongest selling season, we are optimistic, however, that sales will show their traditional pick-up in July – October. Given this background, let’s look at what the data shows:
Residential Home Inventory and Sales
Santa Fe City / County - 2nd Quarter 2010
|
Price Range |
# Current Listings |
Total Units Sold |
Pending |
Average DOM** |
List/Sale |
Ask $/sqft |
Sold Av $/sqft |
| Under $250,000 |
404 |
200 |
53 |
177/226 |
94.25% |
$168 |
$162 |
| $250,000 – $500,000 |
715 |
275 |
60 |
166/244 |
94.50% |
$202 |
$193 |
| $500,001 – $750,000 |
415 |
85 |
27 |
213/309 |
93.00% |
$258 |
$243 |
| $750,000 – $1,000,000 |
248 |
38 |
12 |
290/369 |
93.00% |
$292 |
$274 |
| $1,000,001 – $2,000,000 |
250 |
35 |
7 |
312/426 |
90.00% |
$346 |
$320 |
| $2,000,001 and Above |
82 |
2 |
2 |
293/265 |
92.00% |
$392 |
$362 |
| TOTAL OF ALL RANGES |
2114 |
635 |
161 |
|
92.79% |
$276 |
$259 |
Curiously, it is interesting that the overall inventory is close to the number of units available a year ago. The main divergence is that the Days on the Market (DOM) have grown while the sales price/sqft have dropped. Last year the average Days on the Market was 212 days while this year it hovers close to 300 days. The average price/sqft was $261/sqft last year while this year it’s been $259. Of course, these are the averages and there are differences within individual price ranges as demonstrated in the chart above.
On an upbeat note, the total number of units sold through June 30, 2010 was close to the number of units sold in the same time period for 2008 – a nice increase over 2009. Note that sales in the lower end of the market increased the most while sales above $2,000,000 stayed static.
Year over Year Comparisons
|
Price Range |
Total Units Sold thru 2nd Qtr ’08 |
Total Units Sold thru 2nd Qtr ’09 | Total Units Sold thru 2nd Qtr ’10 |
| Under $250,000 |
167 |
124 |
200 |
| $250,000 – $500,000 |
290 |
177 |
275 |
| $500,001 – $750,000 |
112 |
82 |
85 |
| $750,000 – $1,000,000 |
49 |
38 |
38 |
| $1,000,001 – $2,000,000 |
44 |
19 |
35 |
| $2,000,001 and Above |
10 |
2 |
2 |
| TOTAL OF ALL RANGES |
672 |
442 |
635 |
The absorption chart below shows modest improvement in all price ranges over the same time period last year with the notable exception of $2,000,000 and above. With 82 properties listed over $2,000,000 and only 2 sales year to date, there is a mountain of inventory to work through!
Absorption Rates
2nd Quarter 2010
|
Price Range |
# Sold Past 12 Mo |
# Sold/Month |
Mo. Inventory |
| Under $250,000 |
445 |
37.08 |
10.89 |
| $250,000 – $500,000 |
566 |
47.17 |
15.16 |
| $500,001 – $750,000 |
185 |
15.42 |
26.92 |
| $750,000 – $1,000,000 |
94 |
7.83 |
31.66 |
| $1,000,001 – $2,000,000 |
89 |
7.42 |
33.71 |
| $2,000,001 and Above |
7 |
0.58 |
140.57 |
| Average of all Ranges |
1386 |
19.25 |
43.15 |
Up to this point, we have discussed the overall averages in the market. As discussed in previous issues, you know that statistics vary according to neighborhoods. Here are the updates on the two popular areas of Las Campanas and the Historic Eastside. You’ll see from the charts that Las Campanas has taken a bit of a lesser hit in value than the Eastside with its average price/sqft in 2008 falling 28% from $363 to $260/sqft now. In comparison, the eastside has fallen an average of 34% from $504 to $336.
* All information in this report comes from the Santa Fe Association of Realtors and is deemed to be reliable although Sotheby’s International Realty and The Santa Fe Team do not take responsibility for any inaccuracies.
Quarter 2010 Neighborhood Comparisons – ’08 – ‘10
Las Campanas
|
Year |
Units Available |
Total Units Sold |
Pending |
Average List Price |
Sales Price |
Average DOM** |
List/Sale |
Ask $/sqft |
Sold Av $/sqft |
|
2010 |
141 |
12 |
3 |
$1,244,712 |
$1,029,441 |
304/450 |
89.00% |
$324 |
$260 |
|
2009 |
148 |
20 |
5 |
$1,345,000 |
$1,008,845 |
173 |
96.00% |
$356 |
$296 |
|
2008 |
Unknown |
22 |
$1,487,000 |
$1,438,510 |
298 |
97.30% |
366 |
$363 |
Historic Eastside
|
Year |
Units Available |
Total Units Sold |
Pending |
Average List Price |
Sales Price |
Average DOM** |
List/Sale |
Ask $/sqft |
Sold Av $/sqft |
|
2010 |
67 |
8 |
12 |
$1,330,470 |
$708,375 |
238/303 |
96.5 |
$458 |
$336 |
|
2009 |
67 |
6 |
2 |
$1,444,000 |
$1,091,003 |
220 |
88.40% |
$475 |
$346 |
|
2008 |
Unknown |
15 |
|
$1,917,000 |
$991,000 |
217 |
90.50% |
$562 |
$504 |
As has been the case for several issues now, the land market continues to be excruciatingly slow. With over 800 land listings, there have only been 32 sales as of June 30, 2010. While the inventory is down somewhat over last year, the number of sales year to date is down by half.
Residential Land Inventory and Sales
Santa Fe City / County – 2nd Quarter 2010
|
Price Range |
Current Listings |
Total Units Sold |
Pending |
Average DOM** |
% List/Sold |
Average DOM** |
% List/Sold |
| Under $100,000 |
120 |
15 |
5 |
300/359 |
96.50% |
300/359 |
96.50% |
| $100,001 – $199,999 |
375 |
25 |
7 |
300 |
84.50% |
300 |
84.50% |
| $200,000 – $299,999 |
264 |
2 |
10 |
400 |
89.00% |
400 |
89.00% |
| $300,000 – $399,999 |
89 |
4 |
1 |
480 |
89.00% |
480 |
89.00% |
| $400,000 – $499,999 |
45 |
0 |
0 |
400 |
82.88% |
400 |
82.88% |
| $500,000 – $749,999 |
44 |
0 |
|
400 |
0.00% |
400 |
0.00% |
| $750,00 – $999,000 |
17 |
1 |
1 |
549 |
100.00% |
549 |
100.00% |
| $1,000,000 and Above |
18 |
0 |
|
|
0.00% |
|
0.00% |
| TOTAL OF ALL RANGES |
852 |
32 |
19 |
373 |
86.35% |
373 |
86.35% |
Despite all this uncertain news, there are some things we are sure of as we now enter the heart of Santa Fe summer. Our skies remain as blue, crisp, and clear as ever and the cooling afternoon thunder showers have arrived. While we look out each day across the valley to the Jemez or Sangre de Cristos, it is not hard to understand why Santa Fe has weathered the financial storm in better stead than many other locations. While painful for many sellers, buyers are still attracted to our special town and providing a detectable pulse to our market.
We hope this report is helpful to you. As always we invite you to contact us if we can assist you with any real estate questions or needs!
Sincerely,
Moo Chris Jennifer
